Game One: You are given a choice of three doors. You pick number one. The host opens one of the other two doors, having been given instructions that, if you pick the car, the host is to open one of the other doors, and if you pick a goat, the host opens the other door with a goat. Stalemate. It is a predetermined outcome.
Game Two: The prior game’s outcome stands. The new choice you have is do you keep door number one, or do you switch?
How do you have a 2/3 chance of winning if you switch?
In: 107
Best intuitive explanation I’ve ever had from a friend of mine.
Same game, but 1000 doors.
You pick one.
The host then removed 998 of the doors as having nothing behind them.
Then they ask if you want to change your mind.
With this new information, how confident are you that you picked the only door that has a prize?
You know now that one of the doors left has the prize. The host have you that information. And it’s very useful information.
Are you confident that the one you picked before… When there are a hundred doors, is the actual door?
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