https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/el-nino-strong-development-noaa-watch-forecast-seasonal-weather-winter-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/
I read this article in reference to the El Niño and specifically thinking how it affects Arizona. But I’m a little lost in all the technical verbiage and details. Can anyone chime in?
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Water move around – and often there’s multiple forces trying to move water around. This sometimes results in two forces both trying to move water, which results in a kind of swing: two forces try to push water in different directions, and a third force joins in to make a swing.
One of these is the “El Nino Southern Oscillation”, which involves water between South America and Papua New Guinea. Most of the time, ocean currents push water westward from South America towards Papua New Guinea, which keeps South America relatively cool as the coastal current pulls water up from the south; and has a smaller impact on the temperatures of North America. At the same time, this warmer water feeds storms in the area between Papua New Guinea and Southeast Asia.
However, several things can slow or even reverse that flow. We don’t know all of the factors, but relative sea height (sea level in the area around Indonesia and the Philippines can be as much as a foot or two higher than in the American Pacific) can mean gravity plays a part; weakening sea currents from the time of year (the name “El Nino” comes from Spanish explorers noticing it happens around Christmas); and air pressure all plays a part.
When that flow slows or reverses, water warms in the East (American) Pacific, leading to warmer weather and more rain. Meanwhile, in the West (Asian) Pacific, the opposite happens: colder weather and less rain. Japan and Korea get fewer cyclones (hurricanes), while the farther East you go, there are slightly more cyclones.
However, this only lasts for a short period of time. Once the water starts going west again, it starts going faster; leading to a “La Nina” period during which more warm water heads west. During this period, the West Pacific gets colder weather and less rain (even droughts), while the East Pacific gets warmer weather and more rain.
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