Monty Hall question, but varied. I haven’t seen the option that no matter what you have a 40% chance overall to win. You always pick 1 of 3 doors, then 1 is discarded & you pick 1 of 2. So don’t you always have a 2/5 chance of being right no matter what?
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Not sure where you’re getting these numbers from.
1 in 3 and 2 in 5 aren’t the same. There are only 3 doors, so in the first stage you have a 1/3 chance of picking the correct door.
Because the host always opens a door with a goat, swapping will *always* change what you got. If you got a car you’ll always swap to a goat, if you got a goat you’ll always swap to a car. Therefore the probabilities are swapped and you now have a 2/3 chance of getting the car.
There’s no 50% probability or 2/5 probability at any point, the relevant probabilities are 1/3 and 2/3 and that’s it
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