Monty Hall question, but varied. I haven’t seen the option that no matter what you have a 40% chance overall to win. You always pick 1 of 3 doors, then 1 is discarded & you pick 1 of 2. So don’t you always have a 2/5 chance of being right no matter what?
In: 0
You have 100 doors, pick 1.
1/100 chance of being right.
Discard 98, so 2 doors.
Do you think you should stick with your 1/100 pick?
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Your initial pick was a 1/3 chance. So even with 1 of the 3 discarded, it still is a 1/3 chance, not a 50/50 chance. If the doors were randomized and you had to pick again, then sure, but that’s not how it happens.
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