Initially you have a 1/3 chance of picking right. Or said better, a 2/3 chance of picking wrong.
Then the host reveals a _losing_ door.
So what’s more likely? That you picked a winning door or losing door? That you picked a losing door.
So now 2 losing doors are _probably_ accounted for. The one you picked. And the one the host revealed.
So your chances are best if you switch your pick.
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