Once serious critical mass begins with electric vehicle sales—how are hundreds of millions of people around the world going to get rid of their internal combustion engine vehicles when no one wants to buy them anymore?
In: Economics
The same way they got rid of their horse and buggy. Except it will be faster and more disruptive.
There are always going to be poor people who will lag behind in buying new vehicles who will own the old cars. There are plenty of people out there who have probably never owned a car with less than 100,000 miles on it and already leaking oil.
The same way all old and useless cars leave the system.
They get resold at lower and lower prices until nobody wants them, then get sold for their scrap value, taken to a wreckers years and scrapped.
The same way people got rid of their old computers, old sewing machines, and anything else: they sell them as antiques and collectibles, and a few will be maintained just like the first airplanes. There will never be a time when nobody wants them, rather, they will become more scarce and valuable.
Most will go to the crusher.
Some will be lovingly restored and kept as collectors items in peoples barns that they bring out for parades.
They will have to get their gasoline from the tractor supply store in 5 gallon containers for $49.99
You would need to specify what critical mass means. For most people, it means when using an electric vehicle over its lifespan (10+ years) is cheaper than an old Honda civic, for example. Currently when I take my old Honda civic to a mechanic, every single one is envious and wishes they had one. Because maintenance is simple and parts are cheap.
The way electric vehicles are made now has very proprietary parts and maintenance which leads to much more expensive upkeep if anything goes wrong. Theoretically there’s less that breaks without an internal combustion engine and its high heat, but reality can be different.
I dated someone who had a Volkswagen beetle. She ran over a big puddle on the highway and her headlights went out. Because of the electronics in the headlights and their proprietary make, it cost $2000 *per headlight* to replace them. Unfortunately such stories don’t get into the media much.
Our market easily generates rent seeking behaviors from companies who know when there’s no alternative to parts. That’s why there is still a huge market for old combustion vehicles. I agree EVs are theoretically more efficient and better for the environment, at least if damage from lithium mining and other necessary ingredients are minimized. But we need a true cost/benefit analysis for the average person and their needs, especially in cold environments where batteries behave differently
Supply and demand tends to take care of this sort of thing.
If you need a car, but don’t really mind what you have, the total cost is probably the most important factor. If more people want electric cars and less want old petrol cars, then the price of petrol cars will decrease, which will make them a better value so more people are inclined to by them.
In economics this is known as market clearing.
(Note, once a car become cheaper to scrap than repair they usually are. This is true regardless of new types/features etc).
The average age of cars on the road is now over 12 years. There are a few reasons for this, but part of it, at least for me, is people waiting for electric cars to come down in price. When it comes time to replace their cars many people will have no problem junking their very old cars. I expect this will hasten the transition and that average age will drop in the next decade.
Why would they “get rid of them”? The cheapest car is always the car you already have, if it’s still roadworthy and still suits your needs. People will simply keep driving their ICE cars until they’re too old to be useful, and then they’ll sell them to wreckers and scrappers, the same way that they do today.
Also, there will always be people wanting to buy used ICE cars instead of new electric cars, because they’ll be cheaper. It will be a long time until the last mass-produced ICE cars lose all of their value as used vehicles.
Don’t overestimate the electic market. There are a lot of kinks that still need to be worked out
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/industry-pain-abounds-electric-car-demand-hits-slowdown-2024-01-30/
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