In a hypothetical scenario,
if Lebron James made 10 successful shots in the same spot consecutively, what is the probability that his 11 shot is successful? Is it the same probability as the 1st? or did any of his prior shots affect his 11th throw?
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What about in the instance of coin toss, similar scenario,
if i throw head for 10 times, what is the probability that i will get another head in the 11th time?
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Thanks
In: Mathematics
The question you have to ask yourself is, does the past affect the future in any way? A coin doesn’t care, and you can’t tell the difference between a coin that’s been last flipped heads and last flipped tails. So the odds are always 50/50 for each individual throw. If you get a lot of Heads in a row, the universe does not owe you a bunch of Tails to make that up.
In the case of Lebron James, you *can* tell the difference between a successful streak and a failing streak because he’ll either be smiling or frowning. For humans, things like that can influence success on a skill action like throwing a ball through a hoop. But if you’re just going to assume he has, say, a 70% chance of making the throw each time regardless and he keeps his cool, then his 11th attempt will still be a 70% chance and all the same stuff from the coin flip still apply.
Lucky streaks happen from time to time. They’re rare, but if it’s something that turns into like a news story, it’s not like they report “guy flips coin 10 times, gets a mixture of results”. You only hear about the unique and interesting events.
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