the chaos theory

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the chaos theory

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Anonymous 0 Comments

Chaos does not mean unpredictability in itself. Instead it describes systems which are very sensitive to even the tiniest changes. So if you make any alteration, however inconsequential and minor it may look, it can and often will lead to vastly different outcomes.

The standard example is that of a butterfly whose wing flap might cause a hurricane 17 years later. But it might at the same time have avoided two worse hurricanes 14 and 35 years after, as well as an asteroid impact in the year 8215. Weather and gravity are notoriously chaotic.

The problem is that even smaller changes might have even larger effects, and that we simply cannot know all the data to infinite precision. That together with limited computational prowess is why weather forecasts are not perfect. To stay somewhat on track they have to update their data as often as possible, and acquire as much as feasible as well. For the sheer amount of even most basic data, I like to point to [this website](https://earth.nullschool.net/)

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