Why does the probability “lock in” and not change if you remove a variable but doubles for the other one?
I read it multiple times and it still doesnt make any logical sense to me.
In: Mathematics
The key to remember is it’s all even odds… But then new information is introduced – Monty doesn’t reveal the prize, ever.
Break it down to just two doors, one has poop behind it, the other has 1 million cash 50/50 odds.
You pick a door.
Monty now shows you a door which contains the poop (might be yours, might not be) – that’s the new information.
Now you know with absolute certainty which door contains the 1 million…
You see how the odds changed because of new information? Works slightly differently with more doors, but the above example should make something click for you.
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