Specifically I’m asking about this situation that came up during a D&D game:
Say I’m rolling a 20 sided die, and I do not want to roll a 1. I know that the odds of rolling a 1 are 1/20.
I know that the chances of rolling a 1 twice in a row is (1/20 * 1/20), which is far a lower occurrence.
Say then, before I rolled my “real” roll, I rolled the die again and again until I landed on a 1, then proceeded to roll my “real” roll, would I have reduced the odds of rolling a 1 to (1/20 * 1/20), given that I’ve just rolled a 1 prior?
This is the logic I’m having trouble reasoning about and I’d appreciate it if anyone could clarify what is or is not accurate about the assumptions being made in this scenario.
In: Mathematics
When rolling a dice, each roll is totally independent of the rolls before it. So with your first “real” roll, the odds of getting 1 are 1/20 as you say. Then when you roll again, your odds of getting a 1 are still 1 in 20. The odds don’t change because you did lots of fake rolls in between.
If you want to improve your luck in D&D I’m afraid the best option is just to not piss off the DM. ;p
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