this probability situation – If a couple of people decide to travel on separate airliners instead of traveling together, have they halved their chances of dying in a plane crash, or doubled them?

Question

this probability situation – If a couple of people decide to travel on separate airliners instead of traveling together, have they halved their chances of dying in a plane crash, or doubled them?

In: 3

Answer 1

Planes don’t crash due to “chance”. It’s not as if the plane says “Well I’ve flown 100 times now, on the next flight I feel like crashing”.

That’s why probabilities are a bit of nonsense and don’t really mean anything in the real-world. Planes crash due to causal events like accidents or mechanical failures.