For example: A team is favored to win by 5 points. How is the 5 points determined?
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Lots of math.
Before the betting starts, odds makers look at how well the two teams have done in the past; comparing results against each other, against other teams, and how those have changed over time. From that, they predict how they think the game will come out; with the goal of setting the spread in such a way that half of people bet on one team and half bet on the other. Their goal is to set things in such a way that no matter how the game goes, they have the same amount of money on each side, so they don’t lose no matter what.
And they can do that because most betting places take a cut – if they’re selling something as even odds, you’re probably getting a 95% winning. But things can go against them if to many people bet on the same outcome, and that outcome comes up – so they try to adjust the odds to make people bet other options.
And those adjustments are the heart of why spreads change over time. Some times, it’s because something changed – like a player getting an injury, or recovering from one. However, some times, it’s done because too many people bet on one side of a spread, and they adjust the odds to get people betting the other side. Because the goal is to make the final result people split on bets; so that all they have to do at the end is cover the winners’ bets with the losers’ bets, and take their cut.
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