Multiple super computers have crushed the numbers together after performing lots of simulations on what the weather might do based on some photographs taken by satelites…
This results are thrown together into a big pile of simulation soup… and found that in 20% of the simulations in the soup… it would rain!
This is actually misinterpreted quite often. When you are given a chance of rain in an area, the probability that it will rain in at least some part of that area is close to 100%. So what the chance of rain actually tells us is the percentage of the area within that region that will receive rain (with some assumptions going into it).
As an example, if the weather report says there’s a 20% chance that it will rain in town A, then 20% of the area in town A will receive rain and the probability that at least some part of town A receives rain is about 100%
According to National Weather Service rules, percent chance of rain is (what percent of your area will see rain) * (confidence in forecast.)
So, if half your area will see rain (.5) and you are 80% sure (.8) you would say 40% chance of rain.
The idea is to answer the question: If someone lives in this area should they bring an umbrella? (They calculate how risky they want to be given the percentage.)
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