The definition that gets used around here is that jurors must be firmly convinced of the facts, that they’d be willing to rely on that level of proof for the most important of their own decisions.
To use an example from a textbook of mine, if you’re in a windowless building and someone walks in the front door carrying an umbrella and wearing a dripping raincoat, you’d probably be pretty well convinced it’s raining.
Or if you look up past weather events and history of flooding and insurance claims for a house you’re planning on buying. You can’t know 100% for sure that it won’t flood tomorrow, but you’re pretty sure it’s not likely.
If you forced me to put a number on it, I’d go somewhere in the 85-95% range.
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