What does “Polls Say” in an Election even mean? How are they updated? No one has ever asked me my thoughts. Who are they asking and who is actually answering?
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There is a science (that I don’t totally know) behind determining how many people you need to poll and how you select them in order to produce a sample that reasonably reflects the wider population’s opinion, and the math boils down to only needing a few thousand people at most to figure out the country’s leaning. News organizations share the flashy numbers, but there’s usually a lot more data getting collected, and if you dig a little more, you’ll find out a lot more about who was polled, what they were asked, and how people responded. A good survey will layout this methodology, even if the news doesn’t report on that.
For example, [this article from Politico](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2024/07/18/so-you-wanted-some-harris-polling-00169524) reports on what pollees are saying about a Harris run. If you follow the links on the article, you’ll find [the actual data from Public Policy Polling](https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000190-c7b2-d90b-a5fc-d7bf7a790000), and the first footnote explains their methodology:
> On July 17-18, Public Policy Polling surveyed 650 Michigan registered voters & 624 Pennsylvania registered voters on behalf of Clean and Prosperous America PAC. In Michigan, the survey’s margin of error is +/-3.9% and 60% of interviews were conducted by text message and 40% by telephone. In Pennsylvania, the survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8% and 61% of interviews were conducted by text message and 39% by telephone. Detailed methodology is available on the Public Policy Polling website.
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