What is Bayes’s Theorem?

Question

What is Bayes’s Theorem?

In: 48

Answer 1

Baye’s Theorem provides a simple model for reasoning about conditional probability using algebra. Conditional probability is a way to incorporate prior knowledge into a measure of probability.

Conditional Probability ===

Say 40% of a population has an illness. I can estimate that I have a 40% chance of having that illness as a member of that population.

Say 66% of elderly folks in that population have that illness. I can more accurately estimate that I have a 66% chance of having that illness *given* that I am elderly.

Young & healthy – .5
Young & ill – .2
Old & healthy – .1
Old & ill – .2
Sum = 100%

edit:

Back to Baye’s ===

To tie this back to Baye’s without getting into math, Baye’s formula allows you to translate between the “elderly *given* ill” and “ill *given* elderly” scenarios by plugging and chugging into a nifty lil formula.

Thanks toferino 🙂