It’s one of those phrases I just kinda nod my head and go “yeah” when I hear it. I’ve looked it up before, but the definition never stuck. Same thing happened with “survivorship bias,” but I eventually figured that one out.
I guess I need it explained in a different way for it to stick.
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A good example of survivorship bias that I read somewhere, probably apocryphal:
During WW2, a lot of the fighter planes that were returning had tons of bullet holes around the wings and propellers. Some big shot general looked at them and said that we need to reinforce those areas because that’s where our boys are getting shot the most.
His engineers told him actually, that’s the exact OPPOSITE of what we need to do. The fact that those planes got shot there and still made it home safely means their armor is fine in those areas. On top of which, the planes that didn’t come back would’ve probably been shot on other areas like the fuselage or cockpit. So we need to reinforce THOSE areas.
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