What is Survivor Bias?
In: 1017
Say you judge three popsicle stick bridges at a science fair. However, only one is of them in tact. You give that one the prize for best bridge. And you conclude that this kid has what it takes to get it done. He gets an engineering scholarship for making the best bridge.
What you don’t take into account is the first one was built by a math and engineering whiz who built something meant to withstand an enormous amount of weight, but on the way to school the bully took a hammer to it. And the second one caught fire because the student next to her had a display about a magnifying glass and the bridge caught fire under the concentrated sunlight beam.
By only looking at the results of what survived, you miss out on important data points from those that didn’t, which can ultimately give you erroneous results. In this example, the winner might not have been the best bridge, but is awarded prizes for appearing to be such.
We can sometimes think of things like this when making our own conclusions in life. We listen to the stories of people who succeeded and try to live by their examples. And that’s not wrong. But it’s not everything. Sometimes they’ll say things like, “work real hard. It’s about being good. You have to want it more than anyone.” And that’s great advice, but it’s not true for every example. The Kardashians/Jenners are the most popular people on Instagram and have a billion dollar empire. And while they work hard, they were able to build their businesses by having reliable financial investments, access to the wealthy, status, good looks, media before the time of social media, publicity, lawyers, a well-connected and famous family, etc. They could afford to fail in multiple large ventures in life and learn from them, plus afford trustworthy consultation, while most of us could only maybe do that once or even twice if we’re lucky. Working hard is only part of their equation to the level of success they achieved. Actors know this well. The most talented people I know will never be famous, but the greats may tell you that you have to just be a great actor. It’s not just being a good actor. It’s being a good actor, having the right connections, right timing, right financial abilities/time to pursue the career, looks, branding, marketing, clout, charisma, timing, visibility, desired skillset, and an insane amount of luck. Getting a job is one thing, but being able to get enough big things ahead of a very good talent pool to build a career is a whole other thing. Like, you can see all of the amazing and unbelievable talent on America’s Got Talent, but a week later you’ll forget about them and that standing ovation appearance doesn’t mean a whole career is inevitable. Doesn’t mean the advice isn’t good, but it can also be incomplete and you may have to tailor your strategies to your personal situation. So if you’re say looking up to a musician to be like them some day, “practice every day and get good” is great advice. But it’s not the entire picture and it won’t exactly lead you to the result you want.
We can look look at this with older people, too. Some people will be like, “I lived to be a hundred drinking milk everyday. I smoked until I was 80.” Things like that. And you might be like, “smoking doesn’t kill everyone. Milk is good for me if I drink it every day. I know what I’m doing.” On the whole, no. Not really. Smoking is extremely unhealthy. Milk isn’t very healthy past a certain age because it’s generally not really balanced in a diet for most people. The reason some people live long lives is sometimes good genes. Some people’s bodies can withstand things that are generally bad for the population. One person could get cancer after a few years of smoking. Many have long term health issues because they smoke. Risk of cancers, emphasyma, lung issues, throat damage, mouth cancers, dental damage, risk to children when smoking while pregnant, etc. But if you go by the one person who didn’t get wrecked by it and live by their example, you miss the fact that a good chunk of people will get wrecked by it and likely you are someone who will be in the middle result and deal with the bad things that come from it.
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