As a native speaker, I’m sorry. It depends on the last letter of the place, with a healthy dose of “that’s just how we say it”. If in doubt, use -n/ -an/ -ian. Even if it’s not technically correct, you will be understood. For example, Hawaiian, Asian, Californian, New Jersian, Syrian, and so forth. Use the same rules for plurals (eg Jersey to Jersi + an). If the place ends in an n or m, -ite is more common. Wisconsinite, Gothamite.
-ese is mostly used for language groups, I have no idea why. But Japan turns into Japanese, whether you are referring to the people or the language. Vietnamese and Portuguese are the same.
It is more variable than many aspects of English grammar because how people refer to themselves often gets co-opted into English regardless of its original grammar. For example, Hawaii uses the only -ii in English off the top of my head. But that’s how the native speakers transliterated their name, so we agreed then tacked on the familiar -ian ending to make Hawaiian.
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