When we see all these jobs numbers – job openings, unemployment rate and claims, hiring, non-farm payroll, etc. – what period of time do these reports reflect?
I know these reports lag and do not capture the present state of the economy. For instance, recessions are often declared 3-6 months after they actually happen.
How much of a lag do these reports typically reflect – 4 weeks? 3 months? 6 months?
In: 4
These reports list what time period they cover. For instance, if you look up the unemployment rate on the US Bureau of Labor, they state that the most-recent numbers are for the month of September 2023, and that on November 17 they will publish the unemployment rate for October.
Other reports may have different time periods. The question is like asking “When you order lunch, what comes as a side dish?” Read the menu and you’ll know.
The report will specify. There is no “standard” time period so every report must state it.
Some data will be released fairly quickly (days or weeks) others might be delayed (months/quarter). The quickly released reports are generally subject to future adjustments.
Things like “recessions” have a definition but usually are reported as analysis rather than data.
Inflation is at an annualized rate of x% in the month of ABC is a report. “The data indicates a recession” is an analysts opinion. You have to distinguish between the two.
The jobs/employment data is typically monthly, for the previous month. So numbers coming out now would be September data.
Jobs reports are for the previous month, so the most recent report covers September.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics prioritizes speed when publishing the unemployment situation, so the headline numbers are just preliminary. Over the next few months, they will gather more data and do more sophisticated statistical corrections and publish updated numbers for prior months. However, the changes caused by these revisions are typically small.
The other important thing to keep in mind is that most things measured in the jobs report are “stocks” rather than “flows.” The question is how many people were unemployed in September, but many of those people could have *become* unemployed before September. In this way, the numbers in the jobs report are related to economic activity stretching back farther than the previous month. If a bad labor shock makes the unemployment rate very high, it may stay high even after several months of “normal” hiring.
If you read the actual jobs report, it’s always really clear exactly what it covers. The most recent one can be located here https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
The important thing to note. Reports get revised after they get issued. So that report covered September and was issued on October 6th. But if you read the last paragraph they include some revisions to July and August. This happens with basically every jobs report. There’s the initial data, then the revisions that follow.
I’m 100% certain that in the October jobs report there will be a revision to the September numbers.
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