When we see all these jobs numbers – job openings, unemployment rate and claims, hiring, non-farm payroll, etc. – what period of time do these reports reflect?
I know these reports lag and do not capture the present state of the economy. For instance, recessions are often declared 3-6 months after they actually happen.
How much of a lag do these reports typically reflect – 4 weeks? 3 months? 6 months?
In: 4
Jobs reports are for the previous month, so the most recent report covers September.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics prioritizes speed when publishing the unemployment situation, so the headline numbers are just preliminary. Over the next few months, they will gather more data and do more sophisticated statistical corrections and publish updated numbers for prior months. However, the changes caused by these revisions are typically small.
The other important thing to keep in mind is that most things measured in the jobs report are “stocks” rather than “flows.” The question is how many people were unemployed in September, but many of those people could have *become* unemployed before September. In this way, the numbers in the jobs report are related to economic activity stretching back farther than the previous month. If a bad labor shock makes the unemployment rate very high, it may stay high even after several months of “normal” hiring.
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