Why are there Two Hurricane Models, the European Model and the American Model when physics and statistics are the same everywhere?
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Read Chaos by James Gleick it’ll provide the answer in easy terms. Especially the segment on Edward Lorenz. Physics is the same but to model atmospheric phenomena is complex requiring statistical data and huge numbers of variables. Weather phenomena are driven by nonlinear dynamics in which there is sensitive dependence on initial conditions. There are more than two models. And meteorologists run many models and then look at the probable outcomes from which a most likely outcome is selected. It’s just the European model seems to predict weather characteristics more accurately. Both models use the same physics and thermodynamics. Outcomes depend on the number of iterations the model is run and given the complexity of variables involved predicting weather is not going to be precise all the time. Also there are differences between what the model is designed to predict, how far into the future it predicts how frequently it is recalibrated etc. When one talks about a model they need to realize it’s not like using the ideal gas law and plugging in the knowns to get the unknown result. They use numerical approximations for nonlinear formulas and then run the model iteratively over and over. So many times such that it requires super computers to run all the calculations, and then look at the most probable results.
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