Why are there Two Hurricane Models, the European Model and the American Model when physics and statistics are the same everywhere?

Question

Why are there Two Hurricane Models, the European Model and the American Model when physics and statistics are the same everywhere?

In: 293

Answer 1

There are so many things to account for that it’s impossible to do so and still be able to process it.

Not all of the math in these things are closed form equations, so you have to numerically solve using arrays or loops for an infinite number of terms.

Since this is computationally expensive, people have come up with simplifications, or “models” that will simplify the math extensively with minor trade offs. Sometimes the particular simplification does great at capturing certain details, but other details are less accurate.

Each method for simplifying has tradeoffs. But none of these models are based on a single thing. They are incredibly complex systems and each model will have different inputs than another model based on what their simplified equations require.

So with different inputs, different simplifications that allow us to process something in a realistic time frame, you get different results.

Usually they agree roughly. But the further you try to look ahead, they will all become inaccurate quite fast.

So meteorologists will run some/all models and the red cone you see in hurricane trajectories is actually all the models, with various inputs and it’s results all superimposed on top of each other, then filled in so you get an area of effect.

Notice, right next to the hurricane, the cone is narrow. The models agree pretty closely. The further out, the more spread the red cone is as assumptions begin to break down across all models. The further out they try to model, the less inside that “sweet spot” the model’s creators originally focused on.