Why are there Two Hurricane Models, the European Model and the American Model when physics and statistics are the same everywhere?
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Physics is the same but we don’t have a full understanding of atmospheric physics nor the ability to get all the right measurements
We know that strong upper level winds hurt storm formation, but how much? How strongly does that interact with the other 24 variables like mid and low level winds? Once you’re beyond projectile motion in a vacuum and need to start factoring in other non ideal variables everything is an approximation
Within the US and European models there are multiple models. It’s not that each group made one model, various US groups made models and various European groups made slightly different ones so we bundle them up. Some models are really good at predicting the next 72 hours but less accurate after while others are great at predicting the 1 week track but less accurate for tomorrow. The actual forecast you see takes input from a half dozen different models and takes a best guess at the track from the inputs
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