Why can’t we make graphic cards equipped with visual capabilities of 20 years from now, today?

Question

So my question is while we know in what direction the graphic card industry will go in the next 20 years in terms of more realism, better shadows, textures etc etc, why can’t we produce those results today?

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When I was like 15 years old (I am 29 now) people used to speculate how graphics in games would be in 10 years down the line, most of it has turned out to be true. So why do we have to wait for such incremental changes every year?

In: 0

Answer 1

Lack of technology, especially at scale. To build a better graphics card, first engineers have to come up with a design that improves upon the performance of current designs. As cards get more and more complex, and circuitry more and more “crowded” on a chip, engineers have to contend with physical limitations of current tech (e.g., quantum tunneling of electrons where circuitry is ever closer together) that impact performance/error rates. New processes and/or materials may need to be developed, tested and incorporated into the chip and card making process. This takes time and while the general performance trend is predictable, the means to achieve it is not.

After the new process/tech is created, it has to be implemented at scale. It is VERY costly to build a new (or update an existing) chip manufacturing plant, especially where novel materials or processes are involved. Upwards of $20 billion for a new chip plant with existing tech. And it takes time – time to design, time to finance, time to build, time to test, etc. And if graphics card design outpaces the development of other components, then at least some of those other components may need to go through the same process (new design, development, build, test, etc.) to realize the increased theoretical performance levels. That adds complexity and the potential for delays.

Also, the chip and card manufacturers are for-profit companies. If building an incrementally better chip year after year yields more profit than making huge leaps every now and then, then we’ll see incrementally better chips year after year. Might be some designs in their labs that will eventually make it into production, but not at the expense of profits. Never at the expense of profits.