In lifeguard training they taught us that almost all people that drown haven’t planned on being in the water, and mostly will be in a state of panic. They defined panic as the inability to think clearly, so it’s not something they could reason their way out of. We even practiced things like shouting to people panicking in shallow water to stand up.
Edit: I took lifeguard training about 30 years ago, so this could be out of date.
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