Why do weather forecasts sometimes fail to predict accurately?
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It’s all statistical condition analysis. An 80% chance of rain means that in the existing historical data, it rained 80% of the time when the conditions were the same.
There’s a lot of things that impact weather forecasts. Literally hundreds of hundreds. That’s a lot of things. Even being off a little bit on one of those things can change the forecast a lot. That’s why forecasts aren’t always accurate.
To add to what other people wrote, we don’t have 100% accurate closed form solutions for forecast. Meaning even if we had perfect information of everything on Earth we can’t just plug it in an equation and get a forecast for a given time.
We must simulate interactions. Computers cannot simulate with infinite precision so we must divide time and space into intervals. Such divisions introduce errors that compound the longer we run a simulation.
Winds and currents sometimes change directions unexpectedly. The atmosphere is hardly deterministic so you can’t predict everything right.
From my experience, weather forecasters can get pretty close, winds shift and whatnot, but also to keep everyone happy.
For example, if they say it’s going to rain today and it doesnt, no one really gets mad. Though, if they say it will be sunny all day long and it happens to rain, people get pissed saying they didnt know, or the weathermen lied! Etc..
Also, I dont know shit about fuck
Because trying to predict weather is a fool’s errand half the time. It’s a chaotic mess of temperature, wind, and water spanning whole continents, and any prediction can be sidelined by factors out of your control.
People also read the weather wrong. What does a 65% chance of rain mean to you?
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