If there’s zero water in the air, it’ll never condense on the outside of your glass of ice water. It doesn’t matter how cold the glass is. If there’s no water, the dew won’t form.
If there’s lots of water, even a little coolness from the glass will cause the water to condense on that glass.
Air can only hold so much water, and if its holding as much as it can, a getting colder forces it to drop some water.
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