Well, the odds of them getting a card *can* change.
Statistically, you don’t split tens, ever. And a deck being ten-rich is very good for the players. So somebody splitting tens can have a chance to draw more tens, which they might then split…. giving them a chance of winning more in the short term but with worse overall odds. So somebody doing this can actually deplete the deck of tens quickly if they get a lucky streak. This is really mostly true with tens, since there’s more of them in the deck and splitting them is such a terrible move anyway.
In most cases, though, it’s just confirmation bias “oh you drew the x that would have busted the dealer” and ignoring the times that they drew the card that would have let the dealer win.
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