Why does Japan still have a declining/low birth rate, even though the Japanese goverment has enacted several nation-wide policies to tackle the problem?
In: 12200
This is so-called complex issue, which means a multitude of relatively easy to identify problems intermingle in a way it becomes very difficult for the society to solve.
And it isn’t just a Japanese issue – other Asian countries as well as a large number of European countries are in the same trap. The argument that it is a cultural issue specific to Japan mostly misses the point.
Moreover, a traditional society loves to blame the youth, while these are previous generations which have set exploitative systems that are difficult to reform. Young people have to adapt to what they find.
Below are just some of the issues you need to consider, pretty common for most countries with negative population growth rate issues.
1. High divorce rate means it is a rational choice to wait with having kids until you are sure you’ve found the right guy… which often means the birth is late and there is only one child in the family.
2. Even if most countries have figured out the issue of bringing mothers back into the work force, this doesn’t mean they can return to their carrier. Many companies side-track mothers with small children, as they have less time available for work. This means if you leave workforce for the childbirth early, you are stuck with low paying position for considerable time.
3. I’ve seen the statistic that over half of single mothers in Japan live below the poverty line. This is similar in other countries. Tied with point 1 and 2 it is a very powerful motivator to avoid having children early.
4. The men are unwilling to raise kids of another. This means you can try again if you are divorced without kids, but it is very hard if you do have them. This is probably the strongest cultural factor on the list, but there are few countries which managed to break it somehow.
5. To reverse negative growth people really ought to have 3 children at least… the costs related to having that many children is prohibitive. The level of support needed is not just the cash paid per child, but completely free access to education (including universities), public transport, museums and cinemas, vacations etc. This is level of support that very few countries are willing to provide (France is doing some of these and is one of the very few countries which have reversed the negative growth, IIRC).
There are other factors as well, but the point is even if you solve some of the issues, other will still keep your country down… and to solve all of them the extensive social reforms are needed… which would likely be strongly opposed by social conservatives. In a conservative society the majority of voters would oppose it as well.
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