I haven’t really checked it, but here is my intuition:
It takes about 400x more energy to boil/evaporate water than to heat it by one degree.
Since you need to evaporate water for popcorn to pop and energy is limited in vast majority of cases (such as being heated from the bottom), the popping rate will be limited by how much power is used.
There are small differences between kernels, its almost impossible to heat them all uniformly. Therefore your rate will be: power/(energy to pop a kernel).
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