I have read through around 10 articles and webpages on this problem, and still don’t understand. I’ve run simulations and yes, switching does get you better odds, but why?
In: Mathematics
Here’s an explanation that might help. A sort of simile.
You’re playing roulette at a casino, and bet money on number 4 winning out of the 37 numbers on the wheel. You turn away, because you’re too nervous to look.
“Did I win? Did number 4 win?” you ask your friend who’s there with you.
“What do you think?” your friend teases.
“Well,” you say, “the odds are 1/37 that I picked the right one, so I’m not positive. Did I win?”
“I won’t say!” your friend says. “I’ll just tell you that it was *either* number 4 that won, or number 28. Now what do you think your odds are?”
“My odds are the same,” you say. “Because I still only won if number 4 won, and the odds of that are still 1/37. That doesn’t change just because I know exactly which number *might* have won.”
Latest Answers