I have read through around 10 articles and webpages on this problem, and still don’t understand. I’ve run simulations and yes, switching does get you better odds, but why?
In: Mathematics
The most intuitive way I’ve figured this out.
You’re not the contestant. You’re the host.
The contestant picks the first door- they get it wrong 2/3 times, you then pick the other losing door and the one remaining is the winner. in those 2/3 times, they get the door right by switching. Between their wrong guess and the elimination you’ve narrowed it down to 1 door.
In the 1/3 times they guess it right, you have to pick one of the two losing doors randomly and they’ll get it wrong by switching. Showing them a losing door didn’t make the original odds higher than 1/3 because they guessed it right anyways.
The problem here is that most people look at it as a contestant rather than the host.
Latest Answers