Why does the Computational Power of Chips grow somewhat formulaic without major Spikes?

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Moore’s Law by the co-founder of Intel stated that the number of transistors on a Chip doubles every two years, which has been roughly true of several decades.

And there have also been somewhat formulaic increases to [Frequency and Cores Count.](https://i.imgur.com/XbMffI8.jpg)

I wonder what the Holdup is preventing power spikes. Like why did they not quadruple the transistors or increase frequency further. When extra Cores were invented and Intel built the Duo, then Quattro Processors, why did they not extrapolate the technology and build the Twelve-Core-CPUs of today or even 48-Core-CPUs of the future right then and there?

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8 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

Let’s take your specific example, of a high-count multi core cpu.

Say i’m starting with a dual-core design, so I have some idea of the hw architecture, and how the sw might work.

I decide on a 64 core design target.

First, there’s a massively more complex inter-core data communication priblem, which I have never designed before.

Then, I have to design around the timing problem, because signals on the chip only propagate about 20 cm per nanosecond.

Then I have to think about heat.

Then i have to think about system integration with memories and other nearby components.

Next, the part area is going to be something like 30-100 times as large as the 2-core part, because I’m using existing fabrication tech. This means I’m going to have dead parts on the silicon water much more often, maybe approaching 100%, which is terrible economics.

Also, I may NEED bigger wafers. Which may not be available. And which are going to be very expensive, and very expensive to run in a fab line.

This list goes on and on. I’ve only scratched the surface. And all these things take time and money. LOTS of money, which is always in short supply.

Look into The history of Connection Machines, for an example of related difficulties.

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