For example, when I flip a coin, I have a 1/2 chance of getting head, and the same chance at getting tails. With that theory, if I toss a coin 50 times, I should get 25 heads, and 25 tails.
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However, I did 3 rounds of 50 coin flips, with results of:
1. 28 heads, 22 tails
2. 27 heads, 23 tails
3. 27 heads, 23 tails.
I assumed that perhaps the coins weren’t “true”. Maybe the sides are waited different, maybe I tossed with different height/force each time. So I went virtual, and switched to having a computer roll a dice.
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I should have a 1/6 chance at rolling a number between 1-6. So 60 rolls, should have each number come up 10 times. But in practice my results were:
1. 14
2. 9
3. 8
4. 13
5. 6
6. 10
So how come practice/reality, doesn’t align with theory, even when we take human error out of the equation?
In: 34
The theory aligns perfectly with practice, you are just trying to use the wrong theory on a practical situation it doesn’t apply to.
The theory says: every time you flip a coin*, it will either land on head or on tail.
Special attention to “every time” – this theory applies to each individual flip, but says nothing about a series of flips.
And indeed in practice, every time the coin will land either on head or on tail.
The theory providing an answer to your question here would go something like: out of 50 flips, 50!/(x!*(50-x)!)% will be heads. Here x is the number of heads, and the ‘!’ means factorial operation.
In other words, probabilities don’t predict the future.
*a coin that can’t land on it’s edge
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