Shanghai in China has a fertility rate 0f 0.50
Some parts of South Korea like wards of Seoul and Busan are already in or below 0.30 children per woman
In 2023 Taiwan’s fertility rate was 0.865 and still going downside
The Hong kong one was 0.75 kids per woman
Singapore is 0.97 (and declining very fast)
Japan is the highest at 1.20 (with Tokyo being 0.99) and they’re declining also really fast
Why???
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The biggest driver is that children are not needed anymore on an individual level to secure your pension. They are also no more a financial benefit as a whole.
So basically money.
Probably the same stuff that is causing it elsewhere in the developed world, with gender inequalities and demanding work cultures probably pushing the accelerator a bit more in East Asia than in Europe or elsewhere.
That said, there are also some significant differences in the trends among those countries.
For example, Japan fell below replacement level birthrates far earlier than any other country in the region (1975) but its decline has been way more gradual. Thus while its population peaked earlier and has been declining since 2010, it also has a higher birth rate today than its neighbors.
In Sourth Korea on the other hand (Singapore too) they fell below replacement levels later, but the rate of decline has been way faster and sharper than it has in Japan so its much more of an acute crisis in those countries, especially South Korea. There the birth rate last year was 0.68, which translates into a 2/3 reduction in population from one generation to the next. That is going to hit their society like a ton of bricks in a couple of decades and its really unclear how that society is going to handle it (especially given that it is a country with serious security problems that necessitates a large military due to the North).
In China the trend was started by the one child policy from 1979 onwards, but now that they’ve lifted it they’ve discovered that most people don’t want to have more than one child so it hasn’t made any difference. The thing that seperates China from Japan, South Korea and Singapore is that its the only one which is getting old before it gets rich. While China as a whole has a huge economy, and the coastal areas are fairly wealthy, the vast majority of its population still lives in conditions that are much much poorer. Japan, South Korea and Singapore at least have the wealth necessary to transition their societies, which is a luxury that China doesn’t have owing to its huge population. This is a similar problem for other poorer countries that will face similar demographics in the years to come.
A lot of women I’ve talked to in China are like, “Hell, no!” when it comes to having another child. It means having to go through another pregnancy and birth, and then, in reality, being stuck with a lot of the childrearing duties. Having one kid is a lot more economically doable and you can have freedom and flexibility sooner, because you’re not trapped taking care of child after child.
Although it may cause demographic and economic problems in the future, we can also look at it positively. Women are stating their minds and not bowing to pressure to have more children. They’re willing to assert themselves.
So, in China they have something called the 996. That means people working from 9AM to 9PM 6 days a week. While it’s not everywhere, it is widespread. And with that schedule good luck finding time to date, let alone raise a child.
I think three factors working as a team.
Insane working culture reduces time to do raise kids. DINKs think how tf am i going to raise kids when i barely have time to rest myself. This is a reason specific and mostly prominent to asia.
Two, cost of living. One way to increase time is to have one not working but that aint sustainable due to the reduced income.
Im a DINK and i cannot imagine the stress it would put me if i had a kid from the money pressure. This is a reason for many countries outside asia too.
Finally, social pressure is somewhat relaxed now for men and women to not have kids. Back in the days, if youre a woman, you’re expected to stay home and have kids you dont even consider the option of not having one. A lot of woman naturally agreed with that but a lot of women probably wouldn’t have had one if there was no pressure/expectation. Now, its actually an option to consider. Kids are now reserved for those who genuinely want one
Because becoming a mother is not rewarding for women in these countries.
Young women are highly educated. As soon as they have a child, that career is over. Or they choose to continue work while having to hand over the child to grandparents and spend almost no time with them.
I worked for a large American corporate which allowed working from home whenever you pleased, a novelty in Japan at the time. The return-to-work rate for women after having a child, country wide, was about 5 percent. The company’s return rate: 100 percent.
If women are not penalized for becoming mothers, the birthrate will shoot up.
Source: Spent 10 years in the region.
Property prices and rental are wayyyyyy tooo high for 90% of the people.
Simple fact is, people aint gonna get married because people ain’t gonna bang in the second room while sharing a 40m2 apartment with parents
I see a lot of answer mentioning work culture but I think that’s far from the main reason.
As a resident in Korea, the number 1 reason in Korea at least is cost of living by far. Now everything is stupid expensive, I talked to young coworkers who gave up the dream of owning their own place because of how the real estate market have skyrocketed. On a normal/average salary that’s out of reach in Seoul and surroundings to buy a decent one now.
Now you factor in the marriage cost, because it’s still conservative if you want to have a child you need to marry before. Then you factor in honeymoon cost. Then you need a car. Then when you have a child you need to think you’ll have to pay for expensive academies because of the stupid competitive system for kids to go to a good university.
Cost of life is high now so living on one paycheck is complicated. Both parents need to work. So you need to pay a nanny or something on top of it.
And finally, people enjoy their own life, hobbies and there’s a social pressure on success, and having a child is a setback in that regard. That’s a sacrifice that is too costly to make for many, hence no children.
Long work hours wouldn’t matter that much imo if the cost of life was affordable. Though it is also crucial to have a healthy work life balance for sure.
Said simply everyone is overworked (60hrs is on the lighter side of a normal work week).
Why the change compared to, say, 30 years ago? Because women entered the workforce. Meaning now everyone (not just men) is too busy for a personal life, i.e. fewer and fewer social events to meet people and less time/month to spend with the people you do meet.
As the cost of raising children goes up, people start having fewer children. This includes cost of housing, income lost from maternity leave, and opportunity costs of being passed over for promotions, etc.
Unless there is support to have children such as free childcare, maternity leave, ability to return to your work, and of course, changes to work culture, you have to really want children and/or have an exceptional financial situation.
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