Last year, they were already on the letter I (nine storms) by August. This year, we’re only on F (six storms). Is there a specific atmospherical reason for this, or is it just a strange coincidence?
Edit – I’m mostly talking about the US and that area, but if you’ve noticed the same thing in your geographical area, feel free to share.
In: 176
Geologist here so I may be able to provide some insight (caveat: I only took meteorology in undergrad and have not applied it in my career).
Simplifying it because ELI5:
For tropical storms to form you need a combination of three things. Warm ocean water temperatures, more uniform wind speeds in the air aloft, and air moisture content.
So let’s look at what’s happened so far this year:
As I understand, ocean water temperatures have been above 80F, which is the minimum temperature needed. So, we can rule that out.
Wind shear has been higher this year than usual, which has been detrimental to cyclone formation.
Dry air from the Sahara has been funneled over the Atlantic Ocean due to prevailing weather conditions in the area.
All these factors have resulted in a weaker than usual season.
That being said, weather patterns are changing. The warm water conditions will continue, and weather forecasts have been calling for weaker trade winds. There is also the arrival of the west African monsoon season. All these factors may result in a fairly active hurricane season – remember, the hurricane season goes to November.
Edit to add: I assumed OP was referring to the Atlantic hurricane season. As I understand, the Pacific hurricane season has been fairly average so far.
Edit continued: to clarify, *hurricanes* are used as a terminology in the Atlantic and northeastern Pacific oceans. *Typhoons* are used to refer to the same storm in the northwestern Pacific and *cyclones* are used as a term in the southern Pacific and Indian oceans.
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