Last year, they were already on the letter I (nine storms) by August. This year, we’re only on F (six storms). Is there a specific atmospherical reason for this, or is it just a strange coincidence?
Edit – I’m mostly talking about the US and that area, but if you’ve noticed the same thing in your geographical area, feel free to share.
In: 176
Hurricanes need some cool air surrounded by warmer air to start forming.
There’s a lot less cool air now so less hurricanes. The bad news is once they form they have a lot more energy to play with and increase in size and wind speed.
The stratosphere is significantly cooler this year in the southern hemisphere because of the hunga tonga eruption in January. Any meteorologists know how this would affect northern hemisphere whether patterns?
https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/
You could try your chances and repost this on r/TropicalWeather if you want further explanations. You might get a qualified climatologist/meteorologist to answer your question, although, they may be busy elsewhere at this time of year,
Deviations from a predicted upwards trend can occur. This does not defeat the long term predictions a useful mathematical model makes.
This year? More like the past 2 decades
Extra ELI5: I sold my sailboat last year, therefore this year’s Atlantic hurricane season is very mild. This is the same phenomenon that causes stocks to go down after you buy them or video game prices to go up dramatically after your girlfriend / wife holds a tag sale and you think it’s a good idea to contribute some of your lesser used possessions in support of their efforts to declutter the house.
It’s because the people predicting more hurricanes and tropical storms don’t know what they are talking about.
Latest Answers