Like. I know they are different and that one is less likely. But could someone explain this in a way that I can explain it to my partner? I know it is true but cannot remember anything about why and how to explain my point.
In: 6
**The real ELI5 is because they are isolated events.**
Slightly more detailed example…
If you have a bag with 100 marbles (7 blue, 93 red), you have a 7% chance of picking a blue marble. If you put the marble back into the bag and try again, you still have a 7% chance of picking a blue marble the second time. The second marble pick is an isolated event, not affected by the previous attempt. So the probability of picking a blue marble is 7% each time. If you try 10 times, the probability ‘resets’ each time, they don’t ‘stack’.
However, if you don’t put the marble back into the bag, then the attempts are not isolated events and the probability of picking a blue marble changes based on the results of the previous attempt.
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