Why is a single 70% chance different to Ten 7% chances

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Like. I know they are different and that one is less likely. But could someone explain this in a way that I can explain it to my partner? I know it is true but cannot remember anything about why and how to explain my point.

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Anonymous 0 Comments

Because each chance is separate, but we tend to think of “ten 7% chances” as combining together into 1 70% chance. But this is just flat wrong. Each chance is unique and none is affected by the other. So they don’t “add up” to 70%, rather they remain ten separate chances.

It’s like when someone’s flipped a (non-trick) coin 5 times in a row and they’ve all come up heads, so they think tails is “due”. The coin doesn’t care about or know how many times it’s been flipped and what the results were. It’s just a coin, and every time you flip it there’s a 50/50 result.

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