Like. I know they are different and that one is less likely. But could someone explain this in a way that I can explain it to my partner? I know it is true but cannot remember anything about why and how to explain my point.
In: 6
I’m going to ignore your 70% analogy and change it to a 100% chance vs ten 10% chances.
Now imagine there are 10 balls in a hat. 9 are “wrong” red balls and one is a “right” green ball
In the first example (100% chance), you have ten goes at picking the green ball out of the hat. If you get one wrong, you put the ball to one side and have your next go. With 10 balls and 10 attempts, you’ll 100% get it.
In the next example, if you get it wrong (or right), you put the ball back in the bag. You could get unlucky 10 times and never pick a green. It’s therefore not 100%.
You could get really lucky and pick the green ball twice, or three times or more.
But it’s not 100% – it’s not guaranteed.
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