Like. I know they are different and that one is less likely. But could someone explain this in a way that I can explain it to my partner? I know it is true but cannot remember anything about why and how to explain my point.
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For independent incidents each incidents probability is multiplied, not the count of incidents. This should make sense cause it’s very easy to have greater then 100% chance of something if it was that case which doesn’t fit logic of what probability is for. For some basic math, for anything with a fixed probability that are independent the following is true. The probability to get it is X, the probability to get it N times is X^N, the average amount of times you need to play to win is 1/X (note this isn’t certain win, just expected averages, if you played a million times your mean will be this), the chance to not win is 1-X (1-X is always the probability of the not case), permutations and combinations are important if a specific case is wanted outside of all or at least one (example probability of exactly 2 heads in 3 flips, each permutations is 1/8 and 3 combinations satisfy the case, so 3/8 ). The most frequent question for probability is the at least once case, cause it only cares did you win and not how many times. This can always be shown as 1-((1-X)^N), basically the probability of not losing every attempt.
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