The easiest was i can think of is, if you divide up a sure thing. If you have a 100% Chance it always works. If you divide it up into two chances at 50% it will sometimes fail. That means you can not just add up the chances. Or, the other way around. If you could just add up the chances of every try, you would just have to try enough times, that the chances are more than 100%. But in reality you can always fail all your tries, thus the chances are not really 100%
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