Like. I know they are different and that one is less likely. But could someone explain this in a way that I can explain it to my partner? I know it is true but cannot remember anything about why and how to explain my point.
In: 6
Let’s imagine that these odds apply to the odds of winning a free ice cream cone with the purchase of one at normal price.
At one ice cream shop they give you one spin of the wheel where 70% of the wheel comes up with a free extra ice cream cone and 30% you lose. It’s pretty clear they’re only two possible outcomes 70% of the time you get the free ice cream cone 30% of the time you get nothing.
Now let’s consider the second ice cream shop where they give you 10 spins of a wheel where 7% of the wheel represents winning a free ice cream cone. Here it’s possible, although unlikely, that you could actually win all 10 times. You might lose every time, you might win every time or you might get an outcome somewhere in the middle. Winning anywhere from 0 to 10 ice cream cones is very different than the other ice cream shop where you could only get 0 or 1 ice cream cone.
There are ways to calculate exactly what the odds are of getting 0, 1, 2 3 or etc ice cream cones.
That said the outcome you might be most interested in is the chance that you will get at least one ice cream cone. if we had a pie chart where each slice represented the share of times that each number of ice cream cones came up from 0 to 10, we could see how big the zero slice was, and subtract from 100% to get combined odds for winning one to 10 ice cream cones. The combined odds for getting one to ten ice cream cones can also be called the chance of getting “at least one”.
OK so let’s figure out what the odds of getting zero ice cream cones are. On the first spin the odds of not getting an ice cream cone are 93%. The odds of not getting an ice cream cone on either the first or second spin are 93% of 93%. And this continues until you multiply 93% by itself 10 times. If you do this math, you get 48% as the chance of missing on all 10 Spins.
So we can see that the odds of not getting an ice cream cone all are very different at the two different shops. At the first shop there is only a 30% chance of not getting an ice cream cone. At the second shop, there is a 48% chance of not getting an ice cream cone at all. However, at the second shop there’s a 52% chance of getting one or perhaps more ice cream cones.
Sorry this got a bit long but hopefully the first three paragraphs give you the simple explain it like I’m five answer you were looking for.
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