Think about it like this: If something has a 70% chance of occurring then it has a 30% chance of not occurring. If something has a 7% chance of occurring it has a 93% chance of not occurring. If you have multiple trials of something the chance that it does not happen is the chance of not happening times itself for each trial. 10 trials with a 7% outcome has a 39.8% chance of happening (since 93%^10 =60.2%)
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