Because there’s an overlap where you can have multiple 7% chances come through.
Imagine a coin flipped twice, compared to a sure chance of 100%.
Flipping a coin twice gives you 50% chance to get 1 heads, 25% chance to get 2 heads, and 25% chance to get no heads. You still, on average, get 1 head (1*50%+2*25%), but that isn’t the same as having a 100% chance to get a head.
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