Why is population collapse such a threat when we have 7 billion people?
In: 6
“Population collapse” is a completely misleading term.
The UN estimates that world population will start to fall, very slowly, somewhere around 2080. The estimates end a little past 2100 with a population of 10 billion. So less a “collapse” and more “an increase of 25%”. Of course, this is just a projection – population might start to fall sooner, or not at all.
However the [15-64 population](https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900) – ie. roughly working age – starts to fall about a decade earlier, while the 65+ population continues to increase until after 2100. And everything tends to start sooner in richer countries – Europe & North America have had decline in the 15-64 bracket since the 2010s.
In addition, just like population growth, population decline has momentum – it means a lower proportion of people in the age groups that tend to have children, meaning fewer children in the next generation.
So when people say “population collapse” they’re generally talking not about too few people, but about too high a ratio of working people to older people.
Of course, there are still things that could cause population to fall rapidly, most likely environmental collapse or nuclear war. Those could be genuine population collapses.
Latest Answers