The only way MAD isn’t valid is with the use of tactical nukes, where we could theoretically still only retaliate with conventional weapons. If Russia used a tactical nuke in Ukraine or whatever, that probably wouldn’t cause an immediate, world-ending nuclear exchange, unless there was serious and rapid escalation from there.
But if they launched strategic weapons, it probably would. It would be all or nothing. There is no purpose anyone would have in launching one or two strategic nukes, since it would result in an overwhelming counterattack. They’d send hundreds up at once in a first volley. At that point, we’re launching in a counter attack immediately, maybe before their’s even land. At that point, there is no system or technology that has a 100% success rate against hundreds or thousands of nukes. Even if there’s a 90 or 95% success rate, that’s still dozens of nukes raining down on us, and likewise over there.
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