I know they’re a lot better than they used to be, but it can still vary a lot! Are we likely to get any better at predicting the weather?
In: Planetary Science
We’re trying to tell the future. Not much more to it than that.
It’s easier to guess on a macro scale (here’s a hurriance, it’ll travel west and likely get stronger going over the ocean, then turn northwards and recurve to the east), then on a micro scale (it will definitely hit Little Floodtown at 0714hrs as a Cat 3, causing 107mm rainfall with a north-north-westerly wind of speed 32mph).
Overall yes, we’re getting better. More data means we can refine our models better. More tracking of weather systems means we can see what they’re up to more often, and adapt our models that much quicker. From satellites to storm-chasers we’ve got more eyes on systems than ever before, with better and more accurate equipment.
Nature, however, likes to throw surprises at us. Hence Rule One is always to respect Her.
This is impossible to answer without knowing your accuracy requirements. I find the forecast to be quite good and it’s massively improved over the decades
The weather is a huge system with many many many moving parts that interact with each other. Tiny changes to the starting condition of a simulation of such a system have huge impact on long term outcomes. We attempt to make an accurate prediction, but once things have moved and changed, you need to do a new one.
Imagine seeing leaf blowing in the wind and trying to figure out where it’ll be in 60 minutes. Ya. It’s a miracle we get weather right at all.
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