why the odds of the “two children problem” are 1/3?

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I was asked the question “a man states he has two children, and at least one of them are boys, what are the odds that the man has two boys?” I’ve been told the answer is 1/3, but I can’t wrap my head around it. Additionally, there is another version of the problem that states he has at least one boy born on a Tuesday. How does that change the odds? Why?

Edited to add (so people don’t have to sort through replies): the answer is 1/3 because “at least one boy” is accounting for B/G & G/B. The girl can be the first or second child. You can move the odds to 50/50 by rewording the question to “my first of two children is a boy, what are the odds the other child is a boy”

In: Mathematics

27 Answers

Anonymous 0 Comments

There are 4 possibilities

Boy Girl

Girl Boy

Boy Boy

Girl Girl

Each one is equally likely (Boy Boy is a 1 in 4 chance)

Knowing at least one of them is a boy eliminates the Girl Girl possibility

Now we have 3 possibilities

Boy Girl

Girl Boy

Boy Boy

Only one of those 3 possibilities has two boys, so the odds are 1 in 3

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